Health impact assessment of air pollution in Shiraz, Iran : a two-part study

We aimed to assess health-impacts of short-term exposure to the air pollutants including PM10, SO2, and NO2 in Shiraz, Iran in a two-part study from 2008 to 2010. In part I, local relative risks (RRs) and baseline incidences (BIs) were calculate using generalized additive models. In part II, we estimated the number of excess hospitalizations (NEHs) due to cardiovascular diseases (CDs), respiratory diseases (RDs), respiratory diseases in elderly group (RDsE-people older than 65 years old), and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPDs) as a result of exposure to air pollutants using AirQ model, which is proposed approach for air pollution health impact assessment by World Health Organization. In part I, exposure to increase in daily mean concentration of PM10 was associated with hospitalizations due to RDs with a RR of 1.0049 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0004 to 1.0110]. In addition, exposure to increase in daily mean concentration of SO2 and NO2 were associated with hospitalizations due to RDsE and COPDs with RRs of 1.0540 [95% CI, 1.0050 to 1.1200], 1.0950 [95% CI, 1.0700 to 1.1100], 1.0280 [95% CI, 1.0110 to 1.0450] and 1.0360 [95% CI, 1.0210 to 1.0510] per 10 μg/m3 rise of these pollutants, respectively. In part II, the maximum NEHs due to CDs because of exposure to PM10 were in 2009-1489 excess cases (ECs). The maximum NEHs due to RDs because of exposure to PM10 were in 2009-1163 ECs. Meanwhile, the maximum NEHs due to RDsE and COPDs because of exposure to SO2 were in 2008, which are 520 and 900 ECs, respectively. In conclusion, elevated morbidity risks were found from acute exposure to air pollutants

Predictors of Transition in Different Stages of Smoking: A Longitudinal Study

Abstract We investigated longitudinally the prevalence of smoking according to three stages of smoking (never smoking, experimenting the smoking, and regular smoking), the rates of transition from one stage to another one, and determinant predictors of transition through these stages of smoking. Of all 10th grade students in Tabriz, 1785 students were randomly selected and assessed twice, with a 12-month interval, with respect to the changes of stage. The predictor variables were measured when the students were in the 10th grade. Logistic regression and principal component analysis were used to analysis data at grade 11. Of 1785 students, 14.3% (CI 95%: 12.3-16.4) and 2.8% (CI 95%: 2.0-4.0) of the never smokers became experimenters and regular smokers, respectively and 16.5% (CI 95%: 12.4-21.7) of the experimenters became regular smokers. Among never smokers, participating in smoker groups (OR = 1.24), having smoker friends (OR = 1.85) and a positive attitude towards smoking (OR = 1.22) predicted experimentation; and participating in smokers groups (OR = 1.35) and a lower socioeconomic class (OR = 0.36) predicted regular smoking. Among experimenters, students having general high risk behaviors (OR = 2.56) and participating in smoker groups (OR = 2.58) were distinguished as those who progressed to regular smoking in follow-up. Programs aimed at smoking prevention and intervention should incorporate plans which focus on predictors of transition through smoking stages, and targeting participation in smoker groups

Predictors of Transition in Different Stages of Smoking: A Longitudinal Study

AbstractBackground: We investigated longitudinally the prevalence of smoking according to three stages of smoking (never smoking, experimenting the smoking, and regular smoking), the rates of transition from one stage to another one, and determinant predictors of transition through these stages of smoking.Methods: Of all 10th grade students in Tabriz, 1785 students were randomly selected and assessed twice, with a 12-month interval, with respect to the changes of stage. The predictor variables were measured when the students were in the 10th grade. Logistic regression and principal component analysis were used to analysis data at grade 11.Findings: Of 1785 students, 14.3% (CI 95%: 12.3-16.4) and 2.8% (CI 95%: 2.0-4.0) of the never smokers became experimenters and regular smokers, respectively and 16.5% (CI 95%: 12.4-21.7) of the experimenters became regular smokers. Among never smokers, participating in smoker groups (OR = 1.24), having smoker friends (OR = 1.85) and a positive attitude towards smoking (OR = 1.22) predicted experimentation; and participating in smokers groups (OR = 1.35) and a lower socioeconomic class (OR = 0.36) predicted regular smoking. Among experimenters, students having general high risk behaviors (OR = 2.56) and participating in smoker groups (OR = 2.58) were distinguished as those who progressed to regular smoking in follow-up.Conclusion:Programs aimed at smoking prevention and intervention should incorporate plans which focus on predictors of transition through smoking stages, and targeting participation in smoker groups.Keyword: Smoking, Students, Risk-Taking, Longitudinal Studies, Peer Group, Epidemiology, Prevalence, Risk factor

A framework for exploration and cleaning of environmental data : Tehran air quality data experience

Management and cleaning of large environmental monitored data sets is a specific challenge. In this article, the authors present a novel framework for exploring and cleaning large datasets. As a case study, we applied the method on air quality data of Tehran, Iran from 1996 to 2013. ; The framework consists of data acquisition [here, data of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm (PM10)], development of databases, initial descriptive analyses, removing inconsistent data with plausibility range, and detection of missing pattern. Additionally, we developed a novel tool entitled spatiotemporal screening tool (SST), which considers both spatial and temporal nature of data in process of outlier detection. We also evaluated the effect of dust storm in outlier detection phase.; The raw mean concentration of PM10 before implementation of algorithms was 88.96 µg/m3 for 1996-2013 in Tehran. After implementing the algorithms, in total, 5.7% of data points were recognized as unacceptable outliers, from which 69% data points were detected by SST and 1% data points were detected via dust storm algorithm. In addition, 29% of unacceptable outlier values were not in the PR.  The mean concentration of PM10 after implementation of algorithms was 88.41 µg/m3. However, the standard deviation was significantly decreased from 90.86 µg/m3 to 61.64 µg/m3 after implementation of the algorithms. There was no distinguishable significant pattern according to hour, day, month, and year in missing data.; We developed a novel framework for cleaning of large environmental monitored data, which can identify hidden patterns. We also presented a complete picture of PM10 from 1996 to 2013 in Tehran. Finally, we propose implementation of our framework on large spatiotemporal databases, especially in developing countries

National and sub-national environmental burden of disease in Iran from 1990 to 2013-study profile

Development of national evidence-based public health strategies requires a deep understanding of the role of major risk factors (RFs) and the burden of disease (BOD). In this article, we explain the framework for studying the national and sub-national Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD) in Iran as a part of the National and Sub-national Burden of Disease (NASBOD) study.; The distribution of exposures to environmental RFs and their attributable effect size over 1990-2013 will be estimated through comprehensive reviews of either published or unpublished sources. Statistical modeling will be used to impute missing data in the distribution of RFs exposures for each district-year. National and sub-national BOD attributable to these RFs will be estimated in the following metrics: Prevalence, death, years of life lost due to premature death (YLL), years of life lost due to disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs). The BOD attributable to the current distribution of exposures will be compared with a counterfactual exposure distribution scenario-here, the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. Inequalities in the distribution of exposure to RFs will be analyzed and manifested nationwide using geographic information systems.; The EBD study aims to provide an official report to Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, to publish a series of articles on the exposure trends of the selected environmental RFs, to estimate the BOD attributable to these RFs, and to assess inequalities and its determinants in the distribution of exposure to RFs. Iran's territory is large with diverse population, socioeconomic, and geographic areas. Results of this comparative risk assessment study may pave the way for health policy makers to plan more comprehensive and cost-effective evidence-based strategies

Short-term associations between daily mortality and ambient particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and the air quality index in a Middle Eastern megacity.

There is limited evidence for short-term association between mortality and ambient air pollution in the Middle East and no study has evaluated exposure windows of about a month prior to death. We investigated all-cause non-accidental daily mortality and its association with fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and the Air Quality Index (AQI) from March 2011 through March 2014 in the megacity of Tehran, Iran. Generalized additive quasi-Poisson models were used within a distributed lag linear modeling framework to estimate the cumulative effects of PM2.5, NO2, and the AQI up to a lag of 45 days. We further conducted multi-pollutant models and also stratified the analyses by sex, age group, and season. The relative risk (95% confidence interval (CI)) for all seasons, both sexes and all ages at lag 0 for PM2.5, NO2, and AQI were 1.004 (1.001, 1.007), 1.003 (0.999, 1.007), and 1.004 (1.001, 1.007), respectively, per inter-quartile range (IQR) increment (18.8??g/m3 for PM2.5, 12.6?ppb for NO2, and 31.5 for AQI). In multi-pollutant models, the PM2.5 associations were almost independent from NO2. However, the RRs for NO2 were slightly attenuated after adjustment for PM2.5 but they were still largely independent from PM2.5. The cumulative relative risks (95% CI) per IQR increment reached maximum during the cooler months, including: 1.13 (1.06, 1.20) for PM2.5 at lag 0-31 (for females, all ages); 1.17 (1.10, 1.25) for NO2 at lag 0-45 (for males, all ages); and 1.13 (1.07, 1.20) for the AQI at lag 0-30 (for females, all ages). Generally, the RRs were slightly larger for NO2 than PM2.5 and AQI. We found somewhat larger RRs in females, age group >65 years of age, and in cooler months. In summary, positive associations were found in most models. This is the first study to report short-term associations between all-cause non-accidental mortality and ambient PM2.5 and NO2 in Iran

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation